Biostatistics short course: Group-Based Trajectory Modeling – An Overview and Recent Advances

Daniel S. Nagin, PhD, Carnegie Mellon, will provide an overview of group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) with a focus on applications in medicine and epidemiology and discuss recent advances in this area. Registration required.

Abstract
In this workshop I will provide a brief overview of group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) with a focus on applications in medicine and epidemiology. I will then discuss more recent advances in GBTM. These include multi-trajectory modeling, a generalized model that accounts for non-random subject attrition, and the use of posterior probabilities of group membership to predict the course of biomarkers and other indicators of disease progression or a patient’s recovery from a medical procedure. No prior background in trajectory modeling or a programming language is required.

Prerequisites
None

Daniel S. Nagin, PhD
Daniel S. Nagin is Teresa and H. John Heinz III University Professor of Public Policy and Statistics at Heinz College, Carnegie Mellon University. He is an elected fellow of the American Society of Criminology, American Association for the Advancement of Science, and American Academy of Political and Social Science and the recipient of the American Society of Criminology’s Edwin H. Sutherland Award in 2006, the Stockholm Prize in Criminology in 2014, Carnegie Mellon University’s Alumni Distinguished Achievement Award in 2015, and the National Academy of Science Award for Scientific Reviewing in 2017. He is also the 2021 president of the American Society of Criminology. His research focuses on the evolution of criminal and antisocial behaviors over the life course, the deterrent effect of criminal and non-criminal penalties on illegal behaviors, and the development of statistical methods for analyzing longitudinal data. His work has appeared in such diverse outlets as the American Economic Review, American Sociological Review, Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Journal of Sociology, Archives of General Psychiatry, Criminology, Child Development, Demography, Psychological Methodology, Law & Society Review, Crime and Justice Annual Review, Operations Research, and Stanford Law Review. He is also the author of Group-based Modeling of Development (Harvard University Press, 2005) and chaired and co-edited the report of the (US) National Academy of Science’s Committee on Deterrence and the Death Penalty.